Patrick's magic `win' number

Jul 29, 2010 — The Boston Globe

Jul. 29, 2010 (The Boston Globe delivered by Newstex) --
IT MIGHT be somewhere between John Kerry's tax bracket and Barack Obama's approval rating.
It's the percentage of votes Governor Deval Patrick needs to win reelection.
``The governor is on a very, very clear path to get to his win number,'' said David Plouffe, the governor's political adviser, who also advises President Obama, Patrick's friend.
Ah, the secret "win number.''
Plouffe isn't saying what percentage he believes the governor can ultimately reach in November. But, it doesn't take a high-priced consultant to understand why Patrick's magic win number is less than 50 percent. It's because Independent Tim Cahill and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are in the race. The question is how much below 50 percent Patrick can sink to and still come out on top.
Whatever it turns out to be, it's an important number for the White House. The mid-term elections will determine what happens to Obama's agenda in Congress. But what happens in Massachusetts is even more personal.
Plouffe calls the obvious parallels between Patrick and Obama "an over-stated story line.'' But, it's a story that reads better with a happy ending for Patrick, who preceded Obama as the inspirational candidate of hope and change.
On the surface, the governor's race is essentially where it was a month ago. According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Patrick beats Republican Charlie Baker, 38 to 32 percent. Cahill, a Democrat turned Independent, gets 17 percent. The poll did not include Stein, who is basically being ignored by the political press.
Patrick's lead is relatively good news for his supporters. But if you're Plouffe, you don't get comfortable with a mere 6 percent lead in volatile times. Republican Scott Brown's victory last January in Massachusetts is proof of that.
Plouffe takes several lessons from Brown's win: "Getting good Democratic turnout is hard'' and vital. And, "The ground under anyone is not terribly stable. You have to run an excellent race to win.''
So far, Patrick is running a good race, and Baker is running one that shifts regularly from mediocre to terrible.
But, even given Baker's weakness as a candidate, Patrick's support isn't growing, and in this latest Rasmussen poll, drops back to under 40 percent. A month ago, Patrick led Baker 41 to 34 percent.
The best news for Patrick is that Cahill is holding strong, even after the Republican Governor's Association leveled more than $1 million worth of nasty advertising at him.
The other positive news is that Cahill's ego and $3.5 million war chest will presumably keep him in the race until November. "He's sitting on a lot of money,'' said Plouffe. "At some point, he is going to begin to make his case to voters. I don't think Cahill is knocked down to a place where he can't rebound from.''
It's all good for Patrick, as long as Cahill's vote continues to come at Baker's expense.
But is it really all good? No, it's not.
An incumbent Democratic governor, with 100 percent name recognition, is polling at 38 percent in the middle of a hot, hazy summer. When voters actually start tuning in after Labor Day, does Patrick's number go up or down?
Will Patrick's embrace of national educational standards over state standards push voters to Cahill and Baker?
Does the furor over Kerry and the boat tax that he belatedly decided to pay to Massachusetts remind voters how unhappy they are about taxes, generally, and the Democrats who push them but don't pay them?
Will news stories about patronage and incompetence in the state probation department lead enough voters to conclude they "had enough?'' - the theme of Baker's so far not very inspirational campaign?
The Massachusetts unemployment rate fell from 9.2 percent to 9 percent, putting it below the national average of 9.5 percent. Is that number good enough to convince voters that Massachusetts is on the right track under Patrick's leadership?
You know what they say. The only number that counts is the one that comes on election day.

Joan Vennochi can be reached at vennochi@globe.com.

Newstex ID: BGL-1035-47419758